By Howard S. w/ Henry C. Wallich (eds.) Ellis

ISBN-10: 0333150619

ISBN-13: 9780333150610

ISBN-10: 1349084492

ISBN-13: 9781349084494

ISBN-10: 1349084514

ISBN-13: 9781349084517

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Example text

In no case, however, would he consider the element of the unforeseen, which admittedly was inherent in the shock process, as an argument against the need for global programming. Rather it was an argument in favour of forecasting and programming. On the significance of the frequent occurrence of shocks for programming, various other views were expressed. Professor Bye argued that two kinds of response had to be distinguished : the market response 25 Economic Development for Latin America and the policy response of the government.

In the field of domestic demand, the elements which modern techniques of analysis can provide may be of great assistance in establishing probable levels of consumption for the main groups of products and services. The changes which may take place as a result of altered preferences, technological progress, or relative price fluctuations can be dealt with in the course of application of the programmes, provided that these programmes have the necessary flexibility. Calculations as to the probable levels of income, saving, and the productivity of capital are inaccurate, and more intensive and thorough research will be required before a satisfactory degree of precision can be achieved.

The extent to which a given degree of inflation, combined with a given effective depreciation of the exchange rate, has affected actual growth as compared with potential growth in this way, has been influenced particularly, in addition to resource endowments, by the terms of trade. Of course, the degree of inflation, relatively to exchange rates, has itself often been influenced by the terms of trade. Thus, Argentina appears in the post-war period to have stifled her own growth particularly effectively by an inflation which, relatively to the depreciatiOn of the effective exchange rate, was more pronounced, by comparison with Argentina's improvement in terms of trade, than was the case in most other Latin American countries.

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Economic Development for Latin America: Proceedings of a Conference held by the International Economic Association by Howard S. w/ Henry C. Wallich (eds.) Ellis


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